QQQQ timing - NASDAQ-100 timing - ETF timing.

Sophisticated Market Timing method of StockMarketMirror software can be successfully applied to generate very reliable timing signals for QQQQ symbol. The scenario for catching slow market waves (long-term market swings) is the most suitable for comfortable and profitable trading. The basic idea is to put (almost all) components of your favorite ETF symbol into Stock Basket and run Sophisticated Market Timing method to generate current trading signal to be used for trading of your ETF symbol.  You can create new data source comprising all components of your ETF symbol, including the ETF symbol itself. 

Data source NASDAQ-100, delivered with the software is suitable for QQQQ timing, but you have to add QQQQ symbol into stock list to verify the calculations described below. To do so, launch StockMarketMirror software, select NADAQ-100.autorun from the list box in the top left corner of the screen form and hit PARAMS button. On the new form, hit 'Edit stock symbols...' button. List of stock symbols is opened, using Notepad editor. Type QQQQ as the first symbol and save the modified list of stock symbols with 'Save' command of Notepad.exe menu.  It is also useful to hit the appropriate button to define timing scenario parameters. Define settings for catching slow market waves (long-term market swings) is recommended timing scenario. Exit the parameters form by hitting 'Save' button. 

Hit 'RUN' button to download stock history and to do market timing calculations. After some lengthy calculations, output report will disclose you trading statistics like this:

Trading statistics ... (for the selected NASDAQ components).

Market history file =	E:\SMMproj\Source\NASDAQ-100-EOD\History.mdb
Average net compound profit from Long&Short trades from market timing [%] =	349.99
Average net profit since 8/11/2003 from Buy&Hold [%] =	182.49
Trading days since 8/11/2003 =	1042
Trading years since 8/11/2003 =	4.13
Annualized net compound profit from Long&Short trades from market timing [%] =	43.87
All stocks count =	94
Average max draw-down [%] =	17.68
Net compound profit from LONG trades from market timing [%] =	217.27
Percentage of winning LONG trades from market timing [%] =	76.24
Net compound profit from SHORT trades from market timing [%] =	41.83
Percentage of winning SHORT trades from market timing [%] =	63.83
Bullish rallies from market timing =	12
Chart frame days =	1278
Chart frame from =	480 date 9/3/2002
Chart frame to =	1757 date 9/28/2007
One way commission [%] =	0.25

 

 

 

This table can be interpreted as a statistics for the hypothetical trading with portfolio of 80 components of QQQQ symbol, betting equal money volume on every stock symbol.. Some symbols are excluded automatically prior to timing calculations, because of their great price volatility between successive trading days. But you are not going to trade portfolio of 80 stock symbols. You are going to trade QQQQ symbol only and want to know the profitability estimate for such trading. To get such estimate, close the output report, empty Stock Basket, using command from 'StockBasket' submenu and put single QQQQ symbol into Stock Basket. You can do it by hitting QQQQ symbol in the Liquidity Tree and hitting  'Put in' button afterwards. You have thus created the situation when software is remembering trading signals from the market timing as represented by 80 selected components of NADSAQ-100 and there is only QQQQ symbol in the Stock Basket. therefore you can execute command from 'Tools1' submenu,  saving and showing universal trading report. Table like this will be available in the report: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading statistics ... (for a single stock symbol QQQQ).

Market history file =	E:\SMMproj\Source\NASDAQ-100-EOD\History.mdb
Average net compound profit from Long&Short trades from market timing [%] =	218.31
Average net profit since 8/11/2003 from Buy&Hold [%] =	71.73
Trading days since 8/11/2003 =	1042
Trading years since 8/11/2003 =	4.13
Annualized net compound profit from Long&Short trades from market timing [%] =	32.32
All stocks count =	1
Average max draw-down [%] =	6.65
Net compound profit from LONG trades from market timing [%] =	133.85
Percentage of winning LONG trades from market timing [%] =	100.00
Net compound profit from SHORT trades from market timing [%] =	36.12
Percentage of winning SHORT trades from market timing [%] =	90.91
Bullish rallies from market timing =	12
Chart frame days =	1278
Chart frame from =	480 date 9/3/2002
Chart frame to =	1757 date 9/28/2007
One way commission [%] =	0.25

 

This table can be interpreted as a statistics for the hypothetical trading with individual ETF symbol QQQQ. This is what you can approximately expect from real life trading of QQQQ symbol, generating timing signals from Stock Basket of NASDAQ components.

The reliability of stock timing and market timing calculations is a very important issue. It is well known from various fields of science, that mean value of multiple measurements can give more precise result than single measurement. In the field of market timing, average timing signal, calculated from components of some market index is much more precise and reliable, than the individual timing signal calculated from the single market index. Volatility of the resulting timing signal curve can serve as a measure of its reliability. The smaller the volatility of timing signal curve is, the greater is the reliability of timing signals, derived from the signal curve. Trading methodology should comply with that knowledge. Therefore, it is strongly recommended to use command 'Sophisticated Market Timing via random stock groups from Stock Basket.' for market timing calculations, having large number of stock symbols in the Stock Basket.

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