Some users may not be very comfortable with the time consuming calculations of sophisticated market timing method in the case of long-term swings scenario. Moreover, they may want the timing algorithm to be more intuitive. They are ready to be satisfied with lower performance of such approach to market timing in return for fulfilling their requirements. Command for mild form of market timing can be used for that purpose:
Select NASDAQ-COMPOSITE data source with parameter settings for catching long-term market swings (slow market waves) and hit RUN button to download latest stock history. Sophisticated market timing can be switched off via 'PARAMS' button.
Execute command 'Mild form of market timing ...' from program menu. Method 'Mild form of market timing' is tracking deviations of market trend from strictly linear trend, using simple method of linear regression analysis.
Using appropriate commands from 'Tools 1' submenu, manually define trading signals. following basic principle: buy low, sell high. You can follow lows and highs on the curve of simple price swings that clearly shows wave character. You will get following chart with trading signals:
Now you can run command for calculating and displaying 'Universal trading report'. The report will show you trading statistics like this:
Trading statistics from the overall
market (basket) timing.
| Market history file = |
E:\SMMproj\Source\NASDAQ-COMPOSITE-EOD\History.mdb |
| Average net compound profit from
Long&Short trades from market timing [%] = |
502.96 |
| Average net profit since 3/12/2003
from Buy&Hold [%] = |
188.29 |
| Trading days since 3/12/2003 =
|
1147 |
| Trading years since 3/12/2003 =
|
4.55 |
| Annualized net compound profit
from Long&Short trades from market timing [%] = |
48.40 |
| All stocks count = |
2468 |
| Average max draw-down [%] =
|
21.84 |
| Net compound profit from LONG
trades from market timing [%] = |
275.49 |
| Percentage of winning LONG trades
from market timing [%] = |
71.38 |
| Net compound profit from SHORT
trades from market timing [%] = |
60.58 |
| Percentage of winning SHORT trades
from market timing [%] = |
61.94 |
| Bullish rallies from market timing
= |
4 |
| Chart frame days = |
1278
|
| Chart frame from = |
479 date 9/3/2002 |
| Chart frame to = |
1756 date 9/28/2007 |
| One way commission [%] =
|
0.25 |
